01 // Dashboard
Equity Derivatives Watchlist
Delayed CBOE chains and Yahoo bars. Realized vol is Yang–Zhang 20d; implied move is the ATM-forward expected move to the front expiry (≥ 5 days out). Risk-free rate from 13-week bills: 3.99%.
| Symbol | Last | 1d | 90d | RV 20d | IV 30d | IV − RV | ATM IV (front) | Implied move | Front expiry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | $341.28 | -11.4% | 49.4% | 54.8% | +5.4% | 68.2% | ±7.0% | 2026-11-11 | |
| SPCX | $125.01 | -8.0% | 69.0% | 63.8% | -5.2% | 80.3% | ±8.2% | 2026-11-11 | |
| NVDA | $182.62 | -8.7% | 37.5% | 60.6% | +23.2% | 71.0% | ±7.3% | 2026-11-11 | |
| PLTR | $154.64 | -9.9% | 59.6% | 58.7% | -0.9% | 72.5% | ±8.6% | 2026-11-13 | |
| BETA | $23.69 | -6.4% | 79.8% | 75.8% | -4.0% | 62.2% | ±10.1% | 2026-11-20 | |
| META | $602.01 | -4.4% | 41.7% | 44.9% | +3.2% | 53.7% | ±5.5% | 2026-11-11 | |
| CAT | $558.64 | -5.5% | 59.6% | 47.3% | -12.3% | 57.5% | ±6.8% | 2026-11-13 | |
| COIN | $136.34 | -10.0% | 72.1% | 75.0% | +2.9% | 83.3% | ±9.9% | 2026-11-13 |
Event contracts
Most Active Prediction Markets
| Venue | Market | Yes | 24h volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz — Arthur Fils | 3.5% | 1.1M | Nov 12, 2026 |
| polymarket | LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs — Dplus KIA | 41.5% | 1M | Nov 6, 2026 |
| polymarket | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 96.0% | 911.8K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| polymarket | Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-11-05? | 92.5% | 777.8K | Nov 5, 2026 |
| polymarket | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 100.0% | 771.9K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| polymarket | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 64.5% | 703K | Dec 9, 2026 |
| manifold | Will Trump finish his second term? | 86.0% | 166.6K | Jan 22, 2029 |
| manifold | Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election? | 9.1% | 36K | Jan 10, 2027 |
| manifold | Will Trump Die in 2026? | 1.0% | 28.4K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| manifold | [RESOLVES JANUARY 31] Will the Senate majority leader and speaker of the house both be Democrats after the 2026 midterms | 98.1% | 26.2K | Jan 31, 2027 |