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Equity Derivatives Watchlist
Delayed CBOE chains and Yahoo bars. Realized vol is Yang–Zhang 20d; implied move is the ATM-forward expected move to the front expiry (≥ 5 days out). Risk-free rate from 13-week bills: 3.70%.
| Symbol | Last | 1d | 90d | RV 20d | IV 30d | IV − RV | ATM IV (front) | Implied move | Front expiry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | $319.53 | -0.6% | 50.4% | 42.1% | -8.3% | 42.0% | ±4.7% | 2026-08-14 | |
| SPCX | $114.92 | +6.1% | 81.1% | 85.1% | +4.1% | 99.9% | ±11.3% | 2026-08-14 | |
| NVDA | $218.99 | -0.1% | 42.2% | 42.0% | -0.1% | 38.1% | ±4.3% | 2026-08-14 | |
| PLTR | $155.92 | -1.6% | 80.5% | 48.9% | -31.6% | 50.1% | ±5.7% | 2026-08-14 | |
| BETA | $22.72 | +2.3% | 78.3% | 87.5% | +9.2% | 83.8% | ±13.2% | 2026-08-21 | |
| META | $589.90 | +0.2% | 56.6% | 37.0% | -19.7% | 37.7% | ±4.3% | 2026-08-14 | |
| CAT | $856.96 | -1.6% | 66.9% | 42.0% | -24.8% | 45.0% | ±5.1% | 2026-08-14 | |
| COIN | $145.41 | -3.0% | 73.0% | 67.1% | -5.9% | 68.7% | ±7.8% | 2026-08-14 |
Event contracts
Most Active Prediction Markets
| Venue | Market | Yes | 24h volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend — Team WE | 0.1% | 2.3M | Aug 7, 2026 |
| polymarket | Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | 0.6% | 1.3M | Jun 1, 2026 |
| polymarket | LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner — BNK FEARX | 0.1% | 1.2M | Aug 7, 2026 |
| polymarket | LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner — BNK FEARX | 0.1% | 909.8K | Aug 7, 2026 |
| polymarket | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | 12.5% | 884.3K | Aug 31, 2026 |
| polymarket | LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner — Team WE | 100.0% | 881.8K | Aug 7, 2026 |
| manifold | Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan? | 78.7% | 48.2K | Aug 9, 2026 |
| manifold | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket] | 1.0% | 20K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| manifold | Gojo Stock | 50.0% | 17.5K | Sep 22, 2160 |
| manifold | Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections? | 55.0% | 9K | Dec 1, 2026 |